Daily briefing · September 25, 2026

Today's Economic Brief

The latest official readings show consumer-price growth at 3.7%, unemployment at 4.1%, annualized real GDP growth at 1.5%. New releases and revisions can change that picture.

What changed

FRED Blog · Sep 24, 2026

Estimating the risk of recession in the US

The takeaway A new dataset in FRED provides the monthly probability the US economy is in recession. The latest data, for August 2026, show that probability was 0.08%. The data FRED has added probability estimates of the US econ...

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BEA · Sep 24, 2026

U.S. International Transactions and Investment Position, 2nd Quarter 2026

The U.S. current-account deficit resulting from international economic transactions widened by $33.4 billion, or 15.7 percent, to $246.0 billion in the second quarter of 2026, according to statistics released today by the U.S....

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FRED Blog · Sep 21, 2026

FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, September 2026

In a previous FRED Blog post, we discussed the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released by the FOMC this past June. In this blog post, we again use ALFRED to compare the latest set of projections released in September 202...

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Why it matters

Consumer-price growth is 3.7%, up 1.0 percentage points from Jul 2025.
Unemployment rate is 4.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from Jul 2025.
Federal funds rate is 3.88%, down 0.2 percentage points from Sep 2025.

These comparisons describe published observations; they do not assign causes.

What comes next

Fri, Sep 25 at 10:00 AM ETEmployee Benefits in the United StatesBLS
Tue, Sep 29 at 10:00 AM ETJob Openings and Labor Turnover SurveyBLS
Wed, Sep 30 at 8:30 AM ETGDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026\; State PCE, 2025BEA
Wed, Sep 30 at 8:30 AM ETPersonal Income and Outlays, August 2026BEA
Wed, Sep 30 at 10:00 AM ETMetropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment (Monthly)BLS